How It Works - MLB Predictions

Confidence Tiers

HIGH

17+ points - Strongest edge. Multiple rules align heavily in one team's favor.

MED

8-16 points - Moderate edge. Several factors favor one side.

LOW

0-7 points - Slim margin. Close matchup with little separation.

How Scoring Works

Every scheduled MLB game is run through a 30-rule engine. Each rule evaluates one aspect of the matchup and awards points to one or both teams. The team with more total points becomes our pick, and the point gap is the confidence level.

Rules are weighted by signal quality. High-impact rules (aces, liabilities, streaks) award more points but fire less often. Baseline rules (ERA, WHIP, record) fire on most games and provide the foundation.

This is a fully deterministic system — no machine learning, no neural networks, no vibes. Same inputs always produce the same output.

Pitching Matchup

12 rules

1 Lower starter ERA

2 Lower starter WHIP

3 Ace on the mound

4 Liability on the mound

5 Hot pitcher (last 3)

6 Cold pitcher (last 3)

7 Strikeout artist

8 Pitcher K trend (L3)

9 Pitcher low WHIP (L3)

10 Pitcher going deep (L3)

11 ERA gap > 2.0

12 Pitcher control (L3)

Venue & Splits

4 rules

13 Pitcher venue split

14 Pitcher D/N split

15 Strong at venue

16 Weak at venue

Team Strength

5 rules

17 Better overall record

18 Superior run diff

19 Better last 10

20 OPS advantage

21 Bullpen ERA

Momentum & Situational

9 rules

22 Win streak 3+

23 Lose streak 3+

24 Home field

25 Home dominance

26 Road strength

27 Wind out + power

28 Day/Night record

29 Div familiarity

30 Overperformer regr